The United Nations Security Council is set to hold two meetings on the political situation in Syria this month, making a total of five since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8. The most recent was a closed session in late January at the request of Algeria, prompted by the world body’s Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, who presented his briefing from Damascus. 

At a meeting on December 17, the Council issued a press statement in which its members urged the implementation of a comprehensive political process based on the principles laid out in Resolution 2254 of 2015, and to support the Special Envoy’s efforts to facilitate this process, which must protect and meet the legitimate aspirations of all Syrians, and enable them to determine their future peacefully, independently and democratically. 

The statement also stressed the importance of combating terrorism in Syria and preventing terrorist groups from reconstituting and using the country as a refuge, as well as the new government’s obligation to adhere to all UN resolutions related to non-conventional weapons. 

The key conclusion from the statement was that Security Council members, in unprecedented consensus, refrained from referring to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization. This suggests the start of a radical shift in the Russian and Chinese positions on the group which toppled the Assad regime. 

The most pressing issue at the next session of the Security Council, on February 8, is likely to be the question of establishing a non-sectarian, representative government, ensuring a credible political process guided by the principles of Resolution 2254, prioritizing the needs and aspirations of all Syrians, preventing the fragmentation of the country, and preserving state institutions. 

Depending on how deliberations play out, the session is likely to address two avenues. The first is the holding of a special meeting with regional and international stakeholders to discuss ways to adapt the political process to the new realities on the ground, and to listen to their views on an appropriate strategy for moving forward. 

Such a meeting would differ from previous meetings in Aqaba and Riyadh, as well as that scheduled to be held in Paris on February 13, as it could include countries such as Russia, China, and perhaps Iran, which was excluded from previous meetings on Syria. The conference could address other issues besides politics, most importantly how to meet Syria’s growing humanitarian needs, ensure appropriate conditions for the safe return of Syrian refugees, and address key issues such as economic development and reconstruction. 

The second track in the Council’s deliberations is the possibility of issuing a presidential statement expressing support for the new Syrian government, urging it to move towards implementing the main provisions of Resolution 2254, and paving the way to drafting a constitution and holding elections. 

If such a statement were issued, it would be the Council’s most consequential action so far, yet it would eliminate the need for a new resolution, as the next steps demanded by the international community—such as the constitution and elections—would be the functions of the new government. The UN would not get involved in them unless the Syrian state requested it did so, especially given President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s statement that approving a constitution and holding elections could take as long as five years. It is unimaginable that the UN would keep the envoy’s mission in Syria in place throughout this period, on a matter in which it has no role. 

The new government wants to halt discussions of Syria at the Security Council. It believes that the part of Resolution 2254 on which the UN was facilitating negotiations, i.e. the transitional government, has already been implemented. What is more, it wants to end the mission of the Special Envoy and annul any claim that opposition platforms referred to in the resolution might have to represent all or part of the Syrian people. 

The new government is however likely to support continued discussion of other resolutions and issues, such as Resolution 2118 (of 2013) on chemical weapons, international investigation committees concerned with human rights violations, the issue of missing persons, and reconstruction. 

The way to halt the political debate at the UN, and thus stop any interference in Syria’s internal affairs, is to accelerate the formation of a “broader and more diverse government, with the participation of all segments of society,” as Al-Sharaa told The Economist. This should be done as soon as possible, as some Security Council member states may be inclined to delay any presidential statement until after the formation of the next government. This would delay any international consensus on recognizing the new Syrian government, and leave the door open to external interference in Syria’s internal affairs.