The recent escalation in Daraa after 6 months of the settlement agreement: Indications and repercussions

The recent escalation in Daraa after 6 months of the settlement agreement: Indications and repercussions

The recent escalation in Daraa after 6 months of the settlement agreement: Indications and repercussions

On March 15, 2022, Daraa witnessed a new field escalation; during the attempt by the security services of the Syrian regime to raid a neighborhood of Jassim city in the north of the governorate.

This attempt was accompanied by clashes erupted with former fighters of the armed opposition factions. The confrontations resulted in the killing and wounding of a number of civilians, in addition to an officer and several members of the regime's State Security Branch, and some vehicles were damaged as well.

Local notables of the region and the regime's security committee rushed to contain the conflict and avoid escalation; in order to prevent the region from sliding into large-scale confrontations. Accordingly, the two sides agreed, during a bilateral meeting, to return to calm after releasing the detained regime forces, handing over the bodies of the dead, and cancelling the operation.
This escalation comes 6 months after the Central Committee in Daraa and the Security Committee signed a new settlement agreement under the auspices of Russia, stipulating the non-prosecution of wanted persons, the return of defected soldiers to their service centers without being held accountability, and the handing over of light and medium weapons after inspections by the security forces accompanied by notables and dignitaries.
Although the escalation in Jassim city has ended, it has many indications, most notably:
• The regime’s insistence on continuing the security approach that aims at restoring full sovereignty over Daraa governorate, via re-establishing a State monopoly on weapons and violence and permanently disarming the area while neutralizing all personalities who oppose that, either through liquidation or arrest.
• The continued weakness of the regime’s military and security capacity in Daraa, while all the successive settlement agreements and the clauses they included providing for the handover of weapons did not contribute to restoring the sources of power and authority over the governorate. This is apparently demonstrated if we look at the ability of former opposition fighters to use weapons and target the regime's forces and reinforcements, apart from the ability of the Central Committee to impose conditions that prevent the spread of detachments and checkpoints in many cities.
• The regime was keen not to slip into military confrontations, which might result in unwanted unrest and chaos for neighboring countries. This appears as part of the commitments made by Russia to international actors in the file of the southern region, such as Jordan and Israel.
In any case, it does not seem that the regime may be satisfied with the results of the escalation that occurred in Jassim, and may be preparing to respond later, especially since it will not accept notables and dignitaries as a watchdog over the security force during the raids; Because this undermines the regime's ability and goals to arrest members and leaders of the former opposition factions, who have become a real threat to it.

Share this Post

Why did Emirati FM again fly to Damascus?
In focus

An Emirati delegation headed by the United Arab Emirates foreign minister, Abdullah bin Zayed Al Al Nahyan on January 4, 2023 made a visit to the Syrian capital, Damascus, and met the head of the Syrian regime, Bashar al -Assad. This visit is the second to Syria after the return of diplomatic relations between the two parties late 2018.

Syria during 2022
Analytical Report

An analytical report released by the Jusoor Center for Studies monitors the various stages that the Syrian issue went through during 2022, politically, militarily and economically. The report addresses the political process, the movements of the Astana track, the UN Security Council meetings on Syria, the policies of international actors, and others.

The Israeli strikes in Syria during 2022

In 2013, Israel started launching air strikes on Syria, which fall within the strategy of the "Campaign between Wars (CBW)"; where it considers it necessary to weaken the capabilities of the enemy (Iran and its militias or military units) and respond to threats outside the borders.

Russia and restructuring the Syrian regime forces: Obstacles and alternatives

The Syrian regime attached great importance to the army. It took the slogan “No sound is louder than the battle's one” as an instrument for harnessing all the material and human capabilities to serve the effectiveness of the army's operations in order to maintain its control over the country's areas. The regime also works hard to take advantage of the above-mentioned slogan to serve its regional a