The Syrian regime has wasted no time in exploiting the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. After thousands of refugees flocked back into Syria, fleeing relentless Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets since September 24, Bashar al-Assad has instructed his officials to take a close interest in the unfolding events. From border crossings and internal checkpoints to government assistance and charitable support, the regime is looking for ways to achieve the following goals: 

1. Attracting humanitarian support 

The regime is portraying events in Lebanon as a humanitarian crisis that has added to the burdens it already faces. This was most clearly evident on 8 October, when Assad received the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, whom he informed that the regime is ready to cooperate with international organizations to face the crisis together. Much like in last year’s earthquake disaster, the regime is making every effort to attract support to areas under its own control, under the pretext that it is receiving large numbers of refugees. This aligns with the regime’s broader goal of lifting Western sanctions--or at the very least, widening the set of exemptions under the bracket of humanitarian support.  

2. Increasing economic assistance 

Assad’s government is also keen to combat the transport crisis hitting regime-controlled areas, made more acute by the reception of Lebanese and returning Syrian refugees. It may attempt to use the situation as leverage to extract additional oil subsidies from Iran under new lines of credit to ease the pain. Faltering bilateral agreements between the two allies have continued to disrupt the flow of oil from Iran, which supplies up to half of Syria’s daily fuel supplies. 

On the other hand, the regime may use its propaganda around the worsening fuel crisis as an opportunity to bargain with areas under the Autonomous Administration; offering a round of bilateral negotiations, which it had long refused to restart, in exchange for an increase in oil shipments to regime-controlled areas. 

3.  Disguising the regime’s position over the war

Since the start of Israel’s assault on Lebanon, the regime has made concerted efforts to disguise its stance on the war, as it puts distance, both politically and militarily, between itself and Hezbollah, opting for blanket statements of condemnation and urging UN intervention to stop the war. 

The regime has also prioritized assistance to Lebanese refugees over Syrian citizens fleeing bloodshed. Assad himself instructed his new government to provide a wide array of support to Lebanese refugees, from housing to healthcare; in stark contrast to its dealing with returning Syrians, to whom the government is supposed to provide all support within its means.

4.  Widening dissent in the European Union

Syrian refugees returning from Lebanon have been met with extortion at checkpoints, harassment by security personnel, detention and arrest. Nevertheless, the regime has been keen to receive thousands of returning citizens, if only to convince EU powers that the areas under its control are ready to receive large numbers from Europe--in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of relations with Damascus. It has exploiting divisions within the EU over refugees, after states led by Italy issued a statement calling for a re-examination of the situation in Syria and the bloc’s relations with the regime.

In summary, the Syrian regime is taking advantage of the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon to achieve distinct economic, political and propaganda goals. Echoing its approach to the catastrophic earthquake of early 2023, it is seeking to make gains from various world powers and institutions, without making any fundamental changes to its security or political positions, as well as continuing to manipulate the crisis to gain loyalty and trust from both Lebanese and Syrian refugees.