JUSOOR FOR STUDIES Center has recently published a map of military influence for June,2016 that showed some changes in the percentages of active and overall dominance of the conflicting parties and their military influence in May,2016.
Hence, the center-throughout publishing this monthly map- attempts to spot light on field developments on the Syrian arena, its manifestations on the percentages of active and overall dominance of the conflicting parties in Syria as a whole, and in each province, separately, analyzing its content, clarifying its aspects on the political level, and finally to interpret its outcomes throughout a controversy that links the battlefield with the maneuvers of politics.
In fact, the majority of such changes concentrated in the city of Aleppo, where the opposition`s military factions( Jaiesh al_Fateh Operations Room) achieved a remarkable advancement in the southern rural of Aleppo; they were able to recapture the villages of " Khalsa" " Zaitan" and " Barneh" to the south of "Khan Touman" on June 18, 2016, after more than 100 hours of on-going devastating battles against the Assad forces and their affiliated foreign militia. Therefore, the percentage of dominance went from 16% in May, up to 16.4% in June in favor of the Syrian armed opposition against Assad forces. It`s worth mentioning the absence of the Russian aerial coverage for the Assad forces and their Shite militia during their battles, in an attempt to convey a political message showing a difference in the Russian agenda from the Iranian one, and not to appear like air forces accompanying the Assad forces, the thing that was interpreted as a Russian desire to stick to the boundaries of their interests. This came under Russian statements denying any imminent attack by Assad forces on the cities of Raqqa and Aleppo in the near future, despite the statements of the SG of Hezbullah that regarded the battle of Aleppo as a " Great Battle".
On the other hand, the province of Aleppo has also witnessed an advancement for the SDF on the frontline of Minbij against the forces of ISIL, where SDF increased the percentage of their dominance from 24% in July up to 29.8% from the entire area of the province. The People`s Protection Units, affiliated to the Democratic Union Party represent the backbone of the SDF.
Meanwhile, in Homs, the percentage for the dominance of ISIL`s particularly in the area of al-Badya adjacent to the administrative boundaries of the province of Deir ez zor has deteriorated from 76% in May, to 71.9% in favor of the advancement of Syria New Army, one of the opposition`s armed factions that initiated a military operation to recapture the city of Abu-Kamal starting from al_Tinf crossing border in the southeastern rural of Homs, at the Syrian-Iraqi borders, about 240km away from the city of Palmyra.
Thus, the province of Dara`a came in third regarding the percentage of dominance in favor of the opposition`s armed factions, about 1.9% at the expense of ISIL`s dominance, in the aftermath of the battles fought by the armed factions of the southern front against the " al-Yarmouk Martyrs" and " Islamic Movement of al-mothana" who both swore allegiance for ISIL.
All in all, as a result for the recent field developments, the map of dominance reflected the percentages of control across Syria for the different factions and parties, where we can see an increase in the percentages for the 'active" and "entire" control for the opposition`s armed factions up to 15.1% and 14.9% respectively; as for the Kurdish factions, the percentages are 16.3% and 28.3% respectively, whereas it showed a decrease for those of ISIL`s 47.3% and 27%, and finally the percentage of the "active" control of Assad forces went down to 29.7% while their "entire" percentage remained the same 21%, not deviating from the percentage of May`s.
This change-however- shows a deterioration in the dominance of ISIL in so many areas in the eastern rural of Aleppo, al-Badya area, and al-Yarmouk Basin in the western rural of Dara`a along with remarkable advancement for the opposition`s armed factions, it also shows the inability and infectivity of the Assad forces and their militia in the absence of the Russian aerial coverage and support.